Will the State of Real Estate Hurt Obama's Chances, Part 2

We hope you had a beautiful holiday season so far. But with wrapping paper scraps on the floor and tree starting to look droopy, you need a distraction, and we've got one we hope will start debate. Looking forward to the new year now, Zipcode's enjoying a brief exploration of the real estate related predications the country's myriad experts make this time of year.  And though it's a ways off yet, one of the biggest events of 2012 will be the Presidential Election. Has the state of real estate hurt his chances? Or have the tentative signs of progress helped him? Our series continues with.....


5 Reason Obama Will Be Re-Elected

Before Christmas, we wrote about experts who think the state of American real estate will work against the President in his bid for a second term. Today, we flip sides. Here's why some experts think our current real estate situation will not hold Obama back- that in fact, it'll help him.

1. The main issue working in Obama's favor, and which in the mind of some experts cancels out all other issues, is that he is the known quantity. As the incumbent, he has several important advantages over candidates who are as yet untested.  is the incumbent. 

2. The economy is finally showing signs of life, though that life of course has yet to return to its former vigor. Foreign Policy Magazine writes that "Despite Europe’s economic mess, a number of other factors suggest that the U.S. economy may begin to tick upward more during the next year..... the likelihood that the U.S. unemployment rate declines the better part of a point to something closer to 8 percent is pretty good. "

3. The Obama administration's attempts to help with mortgage practices, first-time buyer issues, and foreclosure procedures have been very public, and Americans historically rally behind a "do something" President as opposed to a "do nothing one." And, finally,  the U.S. Commerce Department reported this month that housing starts rose to an 18-month high this November. Also encouraging: MainStreet.com reports that New unit construction leaped 9.3% to 685,000 – the highest level since April 2010," according to federal data. And local agents can confirm that signs of life are shooting up like early spring in several markets, as confirmed in commentary from Zip Realty Realtors on our National Markets to Watch blog last week. (And if you're interested in getting more information about a particular market's performance from an agent, you can search for a Realtor here.)

4. The Occupy Movement has put a firm "anti-establishment" feeling in the minds of many voters (though of course, not 99% of them). Republicans may seem, by comparison, very establishment. So, although Obama is part of the 1%, the focus this year on "the protester" (Time Magazine's Person of the Year) may work in Obama's favor as he is still perceived as more concerned with working toward compromise with diverging interests.  And meanwhile, chances of a third-party candidate seem more likely on the conservative side than the liberal. If the Tea Party or Libertarian Party splits and backs a separate candidate, those lost votes may siphon off from the Republican party

5. Osama bin Laden and Gadhafi.

So now you have both perspectives on how Obama's track record-including his record in real estate--  will affect his chances of becoming our President again.  But since the real proof is almost a year off yet, anyone could be as much an expert as these individuals we've quoted here. Lay your bets then, readers: will the state of real estate help or hurt the Prez become the Prez again in 2012?