Two studies predict strong 2013 for San Diego

For many years, San Diego's economy has been based on the strength of the city's military bases and tourism. Both of these industries took a hard hit during the recession of the late 2000s, but the results of a new study suggest that each of these sectors is likely to strengthen in the coming months. This news could affect people considering one of the homes for sale in San Diego, as an improving economy is likely to attract new residents to the market.

Strengthening sectors
Lynn Reaser, the chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University, has been analyzing data about San Diego's economy, and she says she has reason to believe that the aftershocks of the recovery are subsiding and an improved economy is on the horizon. Using data from the recently conducted Fermanian Business and Economic Institute forecast, Reaser said that improvements in the housing market have set San Diego up for a strong 2013.

"We are coming off the low point, as we see foreclosures come down" she told KPBS. "Delinquencies come down. People are out again buying homes. And even a few more houses are being constructed.

It's not only the Fermanian forecast that is predicting a strong year, though. Another report, the San Diego Index of Leading Economic Indicators, shows that this fall helped San Diego turn the corner, and continued success is expected.

"I think this [study] is suggesting we'll continue to have positive growth in the economy at least in the first half of 2013 and it could conceivably extend beyond that," University of San Diego economist Alan Gin told the North County Times.

The index considers a wide range of measures - including unemployment insurance filings, new building permits, stock prices of companies based in San Diego and new job postings - to arrive at its overall economic analysis, the source reports. By all of these measurements, San Diego has had a very strong fall of 2012.

There were fewer unemployment insurance claims in San Diego in September 2012 than there were in August 2012, the source reports, the first such happening in three months. The decrease - 0.18 percent - isn't huge, but it does suggest that people in the city are getting back to work.

Online jobs posting
This analysis is corroborated by the fact that the number of online job listings in the city has risen for 21 consecutive months. Although the uptick isn't large - 0.05 percent - the fact that listings have climbed for so long suggests that the jobs lost during the recession are coming back. Unsurprisingly, lower rates of unemployment and more available jobs have combined to buoy consumer confidence, which is up 0.08 percent, according to the source.

Building permits
In most cities, an uptick in jobs leads to a rise in the number of new residents, and San Diego is no exception. In fact, the surge of incoming citizens has led to more home sales and building permits, the latter having grown by 1.35 percent since August 2012.

Cumulative effect
Taken together, these two studies show that San Diego is likely headed for a 2013 that will add to the gains of 2012. This is good news for anyone considering a move to the area, as an improving economy and strengthening job market typically lead to improving property values. Of course, the more people lured by the improving economy, the more competition there will be for homes. If you are serious about moving to this improving metro, you may want to act fast.